15 November 2002

Univ. of South Florida Hosts Anti-Terrorism conference, November 15, 2002

(Focuses on feared al-Qaida attack in Horn of Africa)

By Susan Ellis Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- The University of South Florida is hosting a conference to increase cooperation in the fight against terrorism in the Horn of Africa, according to Voice of America corresponent Alisha Ryu's reporting from Nairobi. The November 14-15 conference is taking place amid fears that al-Qaida terrorists plan attacks in the Horn.

Conference organizers hope it will lead to the creation of a confederation of states in the Horn of Africa that, working with the United States, will seek to promote security in the region.

During the two-day conference, representatives from four Horn countries -- Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia -- are expected to hold talks with officials from the State Department. Africa specialist Stephen Morrison of the Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington, says the conference appears to be the first step in a U.S.-led effort to create a political organization to fight terrorism and lawlessness in the Horn.

"The national security strategy that President Bush issued on September 17, mentions that the U.S. will partner with states that are vulnerable to infiltration by shadowy networks of terror. The Horn of Africa is the most acutely vulnerable," Mr. Morrison said. "So, this, in a way, is an implementation of that strategy."

On November 11, U.S. officials confirmed a warning by the international law enforcement group, Interpol, that al-Qaida terrorists are planning to carry out attacks in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere.

U.S. officials say that countries and waterways in and around the Horn have long been used by al-Qaida and other terrorist networks to hide, organize, and train men. The Horn also lies a short distance from Yemen, identified by the United States as a breeding ground for terrorists.

Recently, the Pentagon announced it was sending 400 U.S. Marines to the Horn to set up a special military command to track down al-Qaida operatives intent on making their way into Yemen and Somalia.

The Marines will join 800 U.S. troops already stationed at a French military base in Djibouti.

Morrison says as countries in the Horn of Africa gain strategic importance, they are in a better position to negotiate for more political recognition and economic aid from the United States.

The relationships with the United States of Eritrea and Ethiopia "suffered very significantly when those two countries went to war with one another from 1998 to 2000," Mr. Morrison said. "They are both looking to get back into a more normal and close working relationship with the United States.

"Somalia, that government barely exists, but it is looking to be treated as legitimate, that it can provide some sort of partnership in ensuring that al-Qaida and its affiliates don't operate on Somali soil."

What may not be so easy is to stimulate cooperation among the countries in the Horn. Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace accord two years ago, but both countries remain far apart on a number of issues. Somalia's transitional government is weak and holds little power outside of the capital, Mogadishu.

But Mustapha Hassouna, a regional security analyst at the University of Nairobi, adds a note of caution. He says that forging closer ties with the United States could be politically risky for some of the leaders in the Horn. He says many Muslims in the Horn and elsewhere in East Africa remain wary of U.S. motives in the region.

"If the United States comes off better in its confrontation with the al-Qaida network and its dealings with the Arab world, then perhaps they can pre-empt any anti-American sentiments," Mr. Hassouna said. "On the other side of the coin, if things don't go very nicely for the United States in the Middle East, these governments will probably be on the receiving end of a popular backlash that will definitely be anti-American."

Another Nairobi-based analyst, Johann Svensson, says he believes U.S. efforts to prepare the region for the fight against terrorism will fail if the effort does not have the backing of the people there. "If there is an integration effort, it has to be initiated by the people and it has, above all, to answer to the needs of the people in the region," Svensson said "The regard for terrorism is important. But I think there are other priorities."

In the United States, organizers of the conference acknowledge that the proposal for a regional confederation in the Horn is still at an early stage. They say they hope this week's conference will produce what they call a "vision plan" that would be refined in the months leading up to a second conference, likely to be held sometime next year in the United States.